Job Namanya | Tayari News
The Ministry of Water and Environment has officially released the seasonal climate forecast for the March-April-May (MAM) 2026 rainfall season, predicting that most parts of the country will experience near-average to above-average rainfall.
Addressing the media at the Uganda Media Centre on Friday, Dr Alfred Okot Okidi, the Permanent Secretary for the Ministry of Water and Environment, warned that the upcoming season, the first major rainfall peak of the year, will have significant socio-economic implications across various sectors.
The seasonal forecast, released in February 2026, indicates a transition from the recent off-seasonal rains into a fully established first rainy season.
Dr Alfred Okot Okidi noted that while much of the country has been receiving intermittent rains since the beginning of February due to persistent weather systems, the official MAM season is now underway.
Overall, the MAM 2026 rainfall forecast indicates that most of Uganda is expected to receive near-average (near-normal) rainfall. However, several critical regions, including the Northwestern region, the Lake Victoria basin, and parts of the Eastern region, are expected to experience rainfall that tends toward “above-normal” or above-average conditions.
In the Southwestern region, which includes districts such as Kabale, Rubanda, Kisoro, and Rukiga, the rainy season has already begun. Dr Okidi confirmed that showers observed over several places in these highlands indicate that the seasonal onset is firmly established.
Peak Period: Rainfall in the Southwest is expected to reach its peak between early and late April.
Cessation: The rains are projected to subside by late May.
Forecast Category: The region is expected to receive near-normal rainfall, with an increased likelihood of above-normal totals.
Reacting to the forecast, Stephen Kasyaba, the Rubanda District Chairperson, noted that the district is preparing for the potential impact on local labour and infrastructure. Kasyaba emphasised the importance of following the Ministry’s advisories to prevent loss of life and property in the landslide-prone Kigezi highlands.
Regional Breakdown: From Mid-West to the North
The detailed forecast provided by Dr Alfred Okot Okidi outlines varying timelines and intensities across the country:
- Mid-Western Region: Onset is expected to be fully established by early March, with rainfall peaking in late April. Overall, the region expects near-normal to above-normal rainfall.
- Central Region and Lake Victoria: Districts like Kampala and Wakiso are already experiencing showers. The peak is predicted for mid to late April, with an “above-normal” tendency.
- Eastern Region: For Mount Elgon districts, showers indicate an established onset. Peak rainfall will occur between late April and early May, with near-normal to above-normal conditions expected.
- Northern Uganda: In the Central-Northern and Eastern-Northern areas (including Lira and Gulu), onset is expected by early March. Both regions are likely to receive near-normal rainfall with a slight tendency toward above-normal amounts.
Socio-economic implications and disaster risk
Dr. Alfred Okidi highlighted that “near-normal” rainfall is typically sufficient to support agricultural production and socio-economic activities dependent on seasonal rain. However, the Permanent Secretary warned that the season would not be without its challenges.
Disaster and Health Risks: The Ministry warns that even in areas receiving near-normal rainfall, isolated heavy downpours can result in localised episodic flash floods. The onset of the season is likely to be characterised by strong winds, lightning, hailstorms, and isolated thunderstorms.
Agriculture and Food Security: While the rain will support crop growth, Dr Okidi urged stakeholders to utilise “Sector Specific Advisories” to minimize risks of crop loss due to flooding or hailstorms. He noted that poor rainfall distribution might still occur in localised areas despite the general “above-normal” outlook.
Dr Alfred Okot Okidi urged all Ugandans and stakeholders to use the forecast for strategic planning.
“I urge all stakeholders to use this forecast for strategic planning and informed decision-making to enhance food security, protect livelihoods, and strengthen climate resilience,” Dr Okidi stated.
The Ministry has committed to providing continuous weather updates and early warning information to guide national and community-level planning for the duration of the season.